The Road to 2030

31 August 2023

Let's accelerate toward 2030 and beyond, driving change one electric mile at a time.

As we navigate the long road to 2030, the automotive industry finds itself at a transformative crossroads, with an increased focus on sustainability and the global commitment to combat climate change through initiatives like the Paris Agreement, electric driving has emerged as a beacon of hope for a greener and cleaner future. But where really are we on the journey to 2030 and the end of petrol and diesel vehicle manufacturing? In this post, we will cover it all from the significance of the Paris Agreement to various aspects of the electric vehicle (EV) market.

What is the Paris Agreement?

In 2015, during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), the Paris Agreement was created and represents an unparalleled global commitment to ease the effects of climate change by limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The agreement was signed by 196 Parties, pledging to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, and providing a framework for financial, technical, and capacity-building support to those countries who need it, after finding alarming evidence of climate change’s dire consequences, such as rising sea levels to extreme weather conditions.

What has the Paris Agreement achieved so far?

While climate change action has a long way to go to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the years since its entry into force have already sparked low-carbon solutions and new markets. More and more countries, regions, cities, and companies are establishing carbon neutrality targets and green initiatives. Zero-carbon solutions are becoming competitive across economic sectors representing 25% of emissions, and the trend is most noticeable in the power and transport sectors.

Why do we need urgent climate change?

As greenhouse gas emissions cover the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat which leads to global warming and climate change. The world is the warmest it has ever been at any point in recorded history and the hotter temperatures are changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Without climate change, we could face catastrophic consequences, much of which are already happening.

Hotter temperatures come with an increase in heat-related illnesses, wildfires and worsening outdoor working conditions. This will also cause a decrease in water supplies in already struggling regions. Droughts can also result in destructive sand and dust storms, displacing billions of tonnes of sand, and resulting in a reduction of land for growing food.

Intense and frequent destructive storms. The warming ocean will be fed on by cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons and will affect the frequency and extent of tropical storms.

Its volume increases and expands as it gets warmer, and melting ice sheets also cause sea levels to rise, threatening coastal and island communities. Carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean, keeping it from the atmosphere, but this makes the ocean more acidic, endangering marine life and coral reefs.

Forest fires, extreme weather, and invasive pests and diseases are among many threats to species related to climate change. Some will be able to relocate and survive, but others will not. Exacerbated by climate change, the world is losing species at a rate of 1000 times more than at any other time in recorded history, and one million species are at risk of becoming extinct within the next few decades.

Fisheries, crops, and livestock may be destroyed or become less productive due to extreme weather and acidic ocean conditions.

Climate impacts are already affecting health through air pollution, disease, extreme weather events, forced displacement, pressures on mental health, and increased hunger and poor nutrition in places where people cannot grow or find sufficient food. 13 million people die annually from environmental factors.

Climate change increases the factors that keep people in poverty – floods sweep away homes and livelihoods, extreme heat makes unworkable conditions, and water droughts affect crops.

Used Electric Vehicle Stock

Electric Driving

One of the most important drivers in meeting the Paris Agreement’s targets is the transition from conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles. EVs present an effective solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.

Why Electric Vehicles?

Zero Emissions: EVs emit zero tailpipe emissions, significantly reducing air pollution and contributing to improved air quality in urban areas.

Lower Carbon Footprint: While EVs do produce emissions during manufacturing and charging, their overall carbon footprint is substantially lower compared to traditional ICE vehicles, and an individual person's carbon footprint is significantly reduced when switching to an electric vehicle.

Energy Efficiency: EVs convert more of the stored energy from the grid to power at the wheels, making them more energy-efficient than ICE vehicles.

Innovation and Advancements: Rapid advancements in battery technology have led to longer ranges, faster charging times, and improved overall performance, making EVs more practical and appealing to consumers.

Where are we now?

Narrowing Consumer Choice Gap

The choice gap between EVs and their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts is gradually narrowing. Although there are limited EV options for consumers, progress is being made in bridging this gap, especially concerning ICE vehicles.

The Price Dilemma: EVs vs. ICE Cars

The persisting price disparity between new EVs and traditional petrol or diesel cars is a slight cause for concern. New EVs on average are priced 37% higher than petrol or diesel cars and this level has remained consistent since June 2022. If we are to successfully change to electric vehicles by 2030, we still have a long way to go, however, it is suggested that prices of new EVs will decrease by 2027.

Challenges in Charging Economics

The initial advantage of lower running costs is being eroded by the high upfront expense of purchasing a brand-new EV and savings vary depending on the charging method. Differences between home charging and public charging rates and current energy prices are the reason for varied savings.

Tax Breaks

Now, electric car owners pay nothing for car tax but that will change in 2025 when millions of EV drivers will be hit with a new tax. From 1 April 2025, electric car owners will be required to pay Band B VED, with the Band A rate of zero effectively removed. European countries have successful strategies in place to boost demand such as a legal requirement for all garages to have an electric charging station.

Auto Trader has published a roadmap to a fairer transition to electric vehicles which includes several key points:

Fairer Charging Costs: The report emphasises the need to equalize Value Added Tax (VAT) on both public and private charging, aiming to create a more equitable charging cost structure.

Enhanced Incentives for Affordability: To democratise EV ownership, the report proposes reducing VAT on used EVs and introducing lower or interest-free rates on EV financing deals.

Battery Health Confidence: Standardising battery health and charging terminology is recommended to instil buyer and seller confidence.

As the automotive industry steers towards 2030, the road to a sustainable future is illuminated by the promise of electric driving. The Paris Agreement reminds us of the urgent need to end climate change, and electric vehicles stand as a tangible and impactful way to achieve the ambitious goals set, presenting a brighter, cleaner, and greener future. As we continue down this electrifying path, our collective efforts pave the way for a world where emission-free driving is not just a possibility but a reality.